MD-Sen: Dueling partisan polls
Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 04:01:33 PM
It's rare that we get both sides release internal polls of a race at the
same time. Usually, both sides get similar numbers and the side with the better
numbers releases. Not the case here:
Voter/Consumer Researc (R) for the NRSC.
10/22-23. Likely voters. MoE 3.9% (No trend lines)
Cardin (D) 41Steele (R)
39Zeese (G) 4Undecided 16
Garin-Hart-Yang (D) for the DSCC. 10/23-24. Likely
voters. MoE 4% (10/16-17 results)
Cardin (D) 52 (49)Steele (R) 40
(40)Undecided/other 8 (10)
Both polls have Steele at essentially the same
level -- 39, 40. The discrepancy is in the Cardin numbers. So what accounts for
that? Look at the undecideds.
The NRSC didn't push leaners while the DSCC's
poll did. So if anything, these polls tell us that Cardin's winning margin of
support is still soft. But, despite the NRSC's attempted sleigh of hand, even
then Cardin is in the lead.
There's one other difference in poll
methodologies -- it looks like the NRSC polled the Green candidate by name while
the DSCC didn't (I'm double checking on that). If so, that could also account
for some of the discrepancy in numbers.
Thursday, October 26, 2006
Lastest Cardin-Steele Polls
From the Daily Kos: