Here we go, Fineline's fearless predictions. On the National front, its pretty clear that the Democrats will take back the House of Representatives. The Senate will be close, everyone agrees on that point too. It will come down to three states: Virginia, Missouri and Tennessee.
Virginia looks good for the Democrats. George Felix "Maccaca" Allen's dark side (racism; anti-semitism; false populism and a tendency to bully) has been exposed and Jim Webb has run an excellent campaign. Allen's racism, along with the RNC's appeals to racism in Tennessee) has hurt Michael Steele in Maryland too, by reminding African-American voters of the GOP's willingness to deploy "the southern strategy" (there's a nice euphemism for you) and the racist tendencies of many of its prominent leaders.
I'm not feeling so good about Tenneessee. Ford faced a daunting challenge, to win as an African-American Democrat in a Red Southern state. He just might pull it off: the polls indicate its neck and neck. But to be frank, I'm worried that these polls are overstating Ford's strength. Sadly, its a well-documented fact that minority candidates do better in opinion polls, than in the actual election.
Which brings us to Missouri, the "Show-Me State." I think Missouri will show us who will control the Senate. Right now Cantwell, the Democrat, is leading by a hair, according to one poll at least. That's bad news for the incumbent, Talent, because late deciders often break against the incumbent. Moreover, this is a particularly bad year to be an incumbent.
However, the GOP is going to be able to sink more money into the state and has a great GOTV infrustructure in place. So I am guessing Talent will win.
There you have it, I'm picking the Republicans to hold the Senate.
What are your predictions? What do you think of my predictions?
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