Predictions: State

There are four statewide races in Maryland: United States Senate, Governor, Attorney General, and Comptroller.

The Democrats will win all four. Doug Gansler and Peter Franchot will run way with the Attorney General and Comptroller races.

The U.S. Senate will be close, but Ben Cardin will win. This is a blue state. This is a blue year. President Bush is particularly unpopular in Maryland and everyone knows that Michael Steele is Bush's man. Steele was banking on making significant inroads into the Democrat's African-American base. But two factors have prevented this from happening. First, the Cardin campaign did an excellent job of reminding voters of Steele's link to Bush and several of his most odious policies. Second, the Maccaca incident and the RNC's willingness to run racist adds against Ford in Tennessee reminded African-Americans of why the Republican party does not deserve their vote. Finally, four words: Iraq, stem-cells, Katrina and Foley.

The O'Malley-Ehrlich race for Governor will be close and could go either way. But I am confident that O'Malley will win. First, this is a blue state in a blue year. This should help Democratic turnout and hurt (slightly) GOP turnout. Secondly, O'Malley has the lead, by how much is debatable, and incumbents have a hard time catching up in the last days of a campaign.

But Ehrlich has money, orgainization and a positive approval rating as governor. We aren't going to know the outcome of this one until November 8th. But one thing I am certian of: if Ehrlich and Steele lose, they have George W. Bush and the Republican Congress to blame.